Late Aashutosh Mishra was a distinguished journalist known for his sharp intellect, integrity, and commitment to truthful reporting. With a career spanning several decades, he earned respect for his insightful analysis and fearless coverage of social and political issues. His writing reflected clarity, depth, and a strong sense of responsibility toward society. He believed journalism was a public service and upheld its ethics with unwavering dedication.
Stage Set For the Bengal Battle is the last piece of his writing, which he prepared on 8th March 2026, late at night for Pratisruti Plus. We reproduce the unedited whole article, for pleasure reading by his avid readers.
For a long time, elections in West Bengal were a two-horse race, beginning with Congress-Left confrontation and then evolving into a contest between Trinamool Congress and the Left. With the rise of Bharatiya Janata Party, it then shifted in largely a battle between TMC and the BJP.
Will it be the same this time? Political analysts differ. A majority of them feel that the state this time could see multi-cornered contests which could disrupt West Bengal’s long-standing electoral pattern. The age of bipolar contests in the state could well be over with the emergence of Humayun Kabir’s Amm Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP).
Kabir, a former TMC strongman, seems to have injected a fresh variable into the state’s electoral equation with his AJUP seemingly ready for the big battle. Sources say that the former MLA has announced plans for the AJUP to contest close to 180 Assembly seats, a move that has the potential to influence results across large parts of the state. At the same time the Congress–Left alliance is seeking to retrieve the lost ground, even as the two principal adversaries—the TMC and the BJP—gear up for yet another high-stakes showdown.
Among all the players, the BJP remains the keenest to leverage a fragmented electoral contest. Having secured a vote share in the range of 32–34 per cent in recent elections, BJP strategists believe that a multi-corner battle could tilt the balance in their favour if the opposition vote, particularly that of the TMC, is divided. Party leaders are optimistic that the entry of the AJUP and the renewed Congress–Left alliance will erode the TMC’s traditional voter base.
Kabir has made it clear that the AJUP intends to concentrate largely on Muslim-dominated constituencies. He is reportedly in talks to explore possible alignments with several Muslim organisations including the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) headed by Asaduddin Owaisi, although the latter is yet to formally clear its position.
If such an alignment takes shape, it could present a formidable challenge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her party, the TMC. Owaisi is believed to command influence in districts such as Malda, North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur, which borders the Seemanchal region, while some other pro-Muslim parties enjoy considerable support in parts of South Bengal—areas traditionally regarded as TMC strongholds.
In the previous panchayat elections, they won nearly 400 seats in these regions. Kabir, meanwhile, hails from Murshidabad, a district where recent political and social mobilisation, including developments linked to the Babri Masjid foundation ceremony, has had a discernible impact.
Political analysts monitoring political developments in West Bengal say if Kabir manages to split the Muslim vote, the consequences could be “disastrous” for the TMC. The party derives a substantial share of its support from the Muslim community, which constitutes roughly 27–30 per cent of the state’s population. They note that several anti-Trinamool parties seem to be quietly extending support to Kabir’s initiative.
Significantly, both the Congress and the Left have adopted a relatively flexible and accommodating stance in the evolving situation. There are indications that Kabir could be open to seat-sharing arrangements, including with parties such as the CPI(M), adding to an already complex electoral calculus.
Muslims account for nearly 30 per cent of West Bengal’s population and play a decisive role in close to 100 Assembly constituencies. For decades, this community has been central to shaping the political direction of the state. With multiple political players now competing for influence over this crucial vote bank, the forthcoming Assembly elections are shaping up to be among the most unpredictable and closely watched contests in West Bengal’s recent political history. Parties are keeping their fingers crossed.
