The exodus of MLAs from BJP in Uttar Pradesh may not be good news for the party as this may convince a chunk of the undecided voters to back the SP, and even demotivate the cadre of the saffron party.
Political situation in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, country’s most populous state, remains extremely fluid with defections taking the centre-stage. The BJP, which is in power in the state, suffered a jolt when cabinet minister and senior OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya quit and joined the Samajwadi Party (SP). Along with him, three other MLAs have also left the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Some more OBC leaders have gone over to SP which is seen as BJP’s principal rival in these elections. With announcement of tickets more loyalty switches can be expected, especially from habitual turncoats who look to gain from such situations. In fact, some of these defectors are people who had joined the BJP ahead of 2017 after quitting SP and BSP. On the face of it, this may look like bad news for the BJP as some political analysts would seek to interpret this as indicative of what may happen in the state. Sometimes ordinary voters also get influenced by such developments as they think that this shows the way the wind is blowing. But this is not always true. The fact is that the BJP itself is quite used to MLAs from other parties joining it in hordes before polls. But such defectors have mostly had a mixed track record. MLAs hopping parties is nothing new but a cabinet minister leaving the party just before the election, and that too when all surveys point towards a BJP victory, may appear it a bit intriguing. Sources say that Maurya was miffed with Yogi as he refused to concede his request for tickets for his family members. The BJP is keen to implement a one-family-one-ticket rule. Generally, two types of leaders quit a ruling party ahead of polls—one who feel that the party is going to lose and other who get wind of ticket denial. This time the BJP could deny tickets to a lot of MLAs as there is a lot of anger against the non-performance of sitting MLAs across parties. Interestingly of the four leaders who quit the BJP in UP recently three are ex-BSP members. In the run-up to the 2017 elections, the BJP had inducted many leaders from the SP, the BSP and the Congress. It had given tickets to more than 50 turncoats. As many as 12 of them even became Ministers in the Yogi Cabinet. In his resignation letter, Maurya claimed that OBCs, Dalits, and youth were being neglected by the Uttar Pradesh government. It is strange that he has become aware of the neglect of OBCs and Dalits after serving in the Yogi ministry for such a long time. This is the question BJP is raising now. And this could also find resonance with the voters. In terms of optics, the exodus of MLAs from BJP may not be good news for the party as this may convince a chunk of the undecided voters to back the SP, and even demotivate the cadre of the saffron party. But BJP can take heart from the fact that the track record and victory performance of such defectors has always been mixed. Besides they cannot afford to take the voters for granted.
